| Metric | High | Medium | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-8 | 2-3 | 20-11 |
| Win Rate | 69.2% | 40% | 64.5% |
| P&L | +$522 | -$140 | +$382 |
Elastic Net Regression - A regularized linear model that predicts player points.
| Feature | Description |
|---|---|
| pts_rolling_5/10/20 | Average points over last 5, 10, 20 games |
| min_rolling_5/10 | Average minutes played |
| fg_pct_rolling | Field goal percentage (10-game) |
| usage_proxy | FGA per minute |
| is_home | Home court indicator |
| rest_days | Days since last game |
| season_avg_pts | Season average |
| games_played | Games this season |
| consistency | Scoring variability |
The model systematically underpredicts player scoring. From walk-forward backtest:
| Strategy | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| All bets | 48% | -8% |
| Overs only | 44% | -15% |
| Unders only | 55% | +8% |
| Unders + 4pt edge | 57% | +12% |
Since actual points > predicted points: - UNDERS win when line > actual (and our low prediction helps) - OVERS lose because we already underestimate
| Rule | Requirement |
|---|---|
| Bet Type | UNDERS only |
| Min Edge | 3+ points |
| Max Odds | -115 or better |
| HIGH conf | 4+ point edge |
Bottom line: Only bet UNDERS. Skip overs entirely. Be selective.
The backtest compares eight betting strategies to understand model value and optimal thresholds:
| Strategy | Min Edge | Max Odds | Bet Type | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRUE BASELINE (No Model) | 0 pts | -300 | All | Bet everything without model selection. Should LOSE money due to vig (~-5% ROI). Proves the model adds value. |
| UNDER BASELINE (No Model) | 0 pts | -300 | Unders | Bet all unders without model. Shows base rate advantage of unders (~52% win rate). |
| OVERS BASELINE (No Model) | 0 pts | -300 | Overs | Bet all overs without model. Shows base rate disadvantage (~48% win rate, loses more). |
| MODEL LOW (2pt) | 2 pts | -115 | Unders | Model-selected unders with 2+ point edge. Entry-level model threshold. |
| MODEL MEDIUM (3pt) | 3 pts | -115 | Unders | Model-selected unders with 3+ point edge. Core profitable strategy. |
| MODEL HIGH (4pt) | 4 pts | -115 | Unders | Most selective - only 4+ point edge. Fewer bets but highest win rate. |
| ALL BOOKS (3pt) | 3 pts | -115 | Unders | Same as MEDIUM but bets at ALL qualifying sportsbooks. Shows multi-book value. |
| STAR UNDERS (2pt) | 2 pts | -115 | Unders | Only players with line >= 20 points. Targets star player bias (60%+ UNDER win rate). |
Generated 2026-01-18 17:54 ET